There are a number of players who are ranked by scouting services who have been passed over in last year's draft, or in a few cases, both 2006 and 2007. They are the late bloomers.
Here's a list of them, with their birthdays. Tikhonov is expected to go fairly high, maybe the second round.
Viktor Tikhonov 5/12/88 (3rd year eligible)
Kristofer Berglund 8/12/88 (3rd year eligible)
Zack Fenwick 5/19/89
Colin Long 6/19/89
David Ullstrom 4/22/089
Eric Doyle 4/5/89
Steven Quailer 8/5/89
Brodie Reid 8/25/89
Maxim Mamin 5/17/88 (3rd year eligible)
Louke Oakley 4/7/89
Tomi Sallinen 2/11/89
Nicholas Tremblay 4/5/88 (3rd year eligible)
Brent Regner 5/17/89
Tyler Gron 9/7/89
Mark Borowiecki 7/12/89
Anton Korolev 1/26/88 (3rd year eligible)
Jack Connolly 8/15/89
Sam Klassen 1/1/89
Craig Smith 9/5/89
Sebastien Erixon 9/12/89
Mike Murphy 1/15/89
Other players who are in their first year eligible but have been described as late bloomers are Zac Dalpe, Jared Staal and Nicholas Deschamps.
Friday, June 20, 2008
2008 draft: Early and late birthdays
A few months ago I posted a link to an article about birth month in sports and how the cutoff for playing years in youth sports can over and underrate players born near the deadline. The argument is that physical development helps those born earlier in the year gain an advantage. The NHL draft deadline for each draft year is Sept. 15. A player must be 18 by that date to be drafted in that year's draft. Why that draft? Because that's the time that NHL camps start, and the league doesn't want anyone who is a minor signing contracts and playing a dangerous sport. You'll never see on-ice workouts start earlier than Sept. 15, and that's linked to the draft.
Anyway, I had a look through some draft-eligible players today and picked out the players on both sides of the magic date. It will be interesting to look back years later and see if they were in fact under or overrated.
Potentially underrated due to their late birthday
Zach Bogosian 7/15/90
Jake Gardiner 7/4/90
Daultan Leveille 8/10/90
Patrick Wiercioch 9/12/90
Andre Petersson 9/11/90
Jared Staal 8/21/90
Ilmari Pitkanen 7/18/90
Travis Hamonic 8/16/90
Marek Viedensky 8/18/90
Maxim Trunev 9/7/90
Dennis Bozic 8/2/90
Pekka Jormakka 9/14/90
Wacey Hamilton 9/10/90
Steven Spinnell 9/9/90
Michael D’Orazio 8/16/90
Colin South 8/9/90
Taylor Stefishen 8/15/90
Michael Lomas 8/16/90
Potentially overrated due to early birthday
Colin Wilson 10/20/89
Josh Bailey 10/2/89
Zac Boychuk 10/4/89
Tyler Ennis 10/6/89
Johan Motin 10/10/89
Emil Bejmo 10/10/89
Julien Demers 9/25/89
Jared Festler 10/14/89
Nicklas Lasu 9/16/89
Michael Pelech 10/6/89
Matt Delahey 9/25/89
Kory Nagy 10/12/89
Marc-Andre Bergeron 9/17/89
Zach Harnden 9/23/89
Roman Szturc 9/25/89
Petr Strapac 10/11/89
Joni Liljeblad 9/17/89
Eric Louis-Seize 10/12/89
Dustin Toharski 9/16/89
Braden Holtby 9/16/89
Jaroslav Janus 9/21/89
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Kings will keep the No. 2 pick
From the LA Times. This makes it even more sure that the Thrashers will get Zach Bogosian.
[GM Dean Lombardi] confirmed Thursday night that he has had offers from three teams in the last two weeks for the No. 2 pick (widely expected to be [Drew] Doughty, a defenseman with the Guelph Storm). The most recent proposal came Tuesday, essentially a three-for-one deal -- a current player, a prospect and a draft choice for the pick.
But Lombardi went to Kings ownership, as he had with the other two, and recommended they reject the offer. He said everyone wanted to keep the selection.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Ottawa to move up and take Doughty?
I'm putting together a few things I've heard today, and that's the scenario I'm coming up with. I'll lay out a few facts, and see if you don't agree.
1. Ottawa is the host team for the draft and the host team always likes to make a big splash.
2. Ottawa recently went on record saying they wanted to move into the top 10.
3. Ottawa just hired a new coach and is looking to shake things up on the roster.
4. Los Angeles holds the No. 2 pick, but does not have a strong preference on a player. They are willing to move.
5. New Ottawa coach Craig Hartsburg is a huge Drew Doughty fan. This spring he called him "the best defenseman in junior hockey." Doughty is projected to go No. 2 or 3.
6. LA beat writer Rich Hammond said today that he has a hunch something big is about to happen with the Kings.
Ottawa holds the No. 18 pick, but roster help, in the form of an established but still young defenseman, could likely be heading LA's way. Dean Lombardi has said he's already turned down offers for the pick, but isn't that what you'd say if you were trying to drive up the price?
1. Ottawa is the host team for the draft and the host team always likes to make a big splash.
2. Ottawa recently went on record saying they wanted to move into the top 10.
3. Ottawa just hired a new coach and is looking to shake things up on the roster.
4. Los Angeles holds the No. 2 pick, but does not have a strong preference on a player. They are willing to move.
5. New Ottawa coach Craig Hartsburg is a huge Drew Doughty fan. This spring he called him "the best defenseman in junior hockey." Doughty is projected to go No. 2 or 3.
6. LA beat writer Rich Hammond said today that he has a hunch something big is about to happen with the Kings.
Ottawa holds the No. 18 pick, but roster help, in the form of an established but still young defenseman, could likely be heading LA's way. Dean Lombardi has said he's already turned down offers for the pick, but isn't that what you'd say if you were trying to drive up the price?
Thrashers draft preview done
I just wrapped up my draft preview over at Hockey's Future. I wrote it all in one day, which is unusual for me. But I knew what I was going to say so it wasn't too painful.
A couple things I cut out because they were a bit of a tangent:
1. If the Thrashers do pick a goaltender (late in the draft), hedging bets in case hockey nets get bigger in the future wouldn't be a bad plan. Tall goaltenders could become a necessity.
2. Most Europeans aren't developed enough within two years to make the NHL and they generally don’t want to play in the minor leagues. Pulling players over to North America at age 20 has caused tension with European countries, and was part of what led to them pulling out of the IIHF agreement. There really do need to be different rules for Europeans, regardless of what the Canadian junior leagues want.
3. Both Thrashers picks in the first round follow a Los Angeles pick.
As far as the mock draft pick goes, I wanted Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson at No. 29, but our LA writer took him just ahead of me at 28. In real life, he's unlikely to last that long.
I get the feeling that the No. 29 pick is on the market though.
A couple things I cut out because they were a bit of a tangent:
1. If the Thrashers do pick a goaltender (late in the draft), hedging bets in case hockey nets get bigger in the future wouldn't be a bad plan. Tall goaltenders could become a necessity.
2. Most Europeans aren't developed enough within two years to make the NHL and they generally don’t want to play in the minor leagues. Pulling players over to North America at age 20 has caused tension with European countries, and was part of what led to them pulling out of the IIHF agreement. There really do need to be different rules for Europeans, regardless of what the Canadian junior leagues want.
3. Both Thrashers picks in the first round follow a Los Angeles pick.
As far as the mock draft pick goes, I wanted Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson at No. 29, but our LA writer took him just ahead of me at 28. In real life, he's unlikely to last that long.
I get the feeling that the No. 29 pick is on the market though.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Draft tidbits -- T-4 days
I had to make my last pick in the HF staff mock draft today. The results of that will be posted shortly on the site, but that and some other fact-checking caused me to delve pretty deeply into the ISS draft guide. A few interesting things I noted:
The guide has a "style compares to" section, where they say which NHL player each top-30 prospect most resembles. Brian Campbell, Jay Bouwmeester, Adam Foote, etc. I get to Kyle Beach and it says "Terry Ryan." Who? I looked this name up and the most accomplished Terry Ryan was drafted in the first round in 1995 by the Canadiens, peaked in his draft year and played just 8 NHL games. What kind of backhanded compliment is this? Actually I think it may have to do with the fact that he was from Newfoundland and so is one of ISS's top scouts. How about a comparison more than a few people would get then?
I checked out what my hometown OHL Erie Otters had to offer this year. The top-ranked guy is Mitch Gaulton, a defenseman. He only played 20 games this year due to an elbow injury. That's probably going to keep him from going as high as he should. Poor kid. I'm going to make sure we have a profile for him.
Ever hear of the Don Waddell award? It's a real award, given for the top freshman at Northern Michigan University, Don's alma mater. Mark Olver won it this year. He put up some darn good numbers as a freshman with Northern (led the team in scoring with 38 points in 39 games), but isn't ranked very high, jut 207th among North American skaters by Central Scouting and not at all by ISS. Makes me think scouts are scared off by the experience with his brother Darin a few years ago -- drafted 36th overall by the Rangers and then they never signed him, he went to Europe. Their father is now the GM of the AHL Iowa Stars, by the way.
I just heard back from Dave Caruso, who everyone should know. I was asking him about Vinny Saponari. The two are many years apart, but Dave said he knew Vinny's older brother Al. And of course Dave managed to work in the fact that Ohio State was recruiting Vinny. He cracks me up.
.
The guide has a "style compares to" section, where they say which NHL player each top-30 prospect most resembles. Brian Campbell, Jay Bouwmeester, Adam Foote, etc. I get to Kyle Beach and it says "Terry Ryan." Who? I looked this name up and the most accomplished Terry Ryan was drafted in the first round in 1995 by the Canadiens, peaked in his draft year and played just 8 NHL games. What kind of backhanded compliment is this? Actually I think it may have to do with the fact that he was from Newfoundland and so is one of ISS's top scouts. How about a comparison more than a few people would get then?
I checked out what my hometown OHL Erie Otters had to offer this year. The top-ranked guy is Mitch Gaulton, a defenseman. He only played 20 games this year due to an elbow injury. That's probably going to keep him from going as high as he should. Poor kid. I'm going to make sure we have a profile for him.
Ever hear of the Don Waddell award? It's a real award, given for the top freshman at Northern Michigan University, Don's alma mater. Mark Olver won it this year. He put up some darn good numbers as a freshman with Northern (led the team in scoring with 38 points in 39 games), but isn't ranked very high, jut 207th among North American skaters by Central Scouting and not at all by ISS. Makes me think scouts are scared off by the experience with his brother Darin a few years ago -- drafted 36th overall by the Rangers and then they never signed him, he went to Europe. Their father is now the GM of the AHL Iowa Stars, by the way.
I just heard back from Dave Caruso, who everyone should know. I was asking him about Vinny Saponari. The two are many years apart, but Dave said he knew Vinny's older brother Al. And of course Dave managed to work in the fact that Ohio State was recruiting Vinny. He cracks me up.
.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Calder Cup wrap-up done
Last night I finished an article on the key prospects in both the AHL and ECHL finals. You can read it here. One point in there that could get lost, but is important: the Thrashers hope to retain Joel Kwiatkowski next season. There was some talk of him going to Russia, but I'm hearing he'll be offered another NHL deal, so it could entice him to stay. He was a very important influence on the Wolves, and a good guy to have available for call-up with all of his experience.
During the finals I mentioned that Wilkes-Barre had some points about the Wolves written on their locker room white board. Here they are. As I said I think they are very accurate.
1. Front on most pt shots
2. Hold one D net front
3. D rim pucks most of the time
4. F's pull up when enter zone -> late men
5. 1-2-2
The last one must be the forecheck.
Normally after the Wolves season ends, I would write a review of the entire season of each of the prospects, but since it ended so close to the NHL draft -- our Superbowl -- it may not happen. I had a lot of material for it too. McCudden on how LaVallee needs to be better away from the puck, Ondrej Pavelec saying he thinks the brawl-fests with Rockford are stupid. But it would have to be done after the draft and that's probably too late. Gwinnett would be in there too: Myles Stoesz saying he would probably get a job at Best Buy or something this summer, anywhere that he can work on commission. He has a way with people. I'll find a way to use it all somehow. If I don't do a late review, maybe in the next Top 20 in August.
During the finals I mentioned that Wilkes-Barre had some points about the Wolves written on their locker room white board. Here they are. As I said I think they are very accurate.
1. Front on most pt shots
2. Hold one D net front
3. D rim pucks most of the time
4. F's pull up when enter zone -> late men
5. 1-2-2
The last one must be the forecheck.
Normally after the Wolves season ends, I would write a review of the entire season of each of the prospects, but since it ended so close to the NHL draft -- our Superbowl -- it may not happen. I had a lot of material for it too. McCudden on how LaVallee needs to be better away from the puck, Ondrej Pavelec saying he thinks the brawl-fests with Rockford are stupid. But it would have to be done after the draft and that's probably too late. Gwinnett would be in there too: Myles Stoesz saying he would probably get a job at Best Buy or something this summer, anywhere that he can work on commission. He has a way with people. I'll find a way to use it all somehow. If I don't do a late review, maybe in the next Top 20 in August.
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